INDIA GDP FORCASTE

India's GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024–25 (FY25) is estimated at 6.5%, marking a slowdown from the previous year's 9.2%. Despite this moderation, India remains the fastest-growing major economy globally.

Key Highlights:

* Q4 Performance: In the January–March 2025 quarter, India's economy grew by 7.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a strong end to the fiscal year.

* Sectoral Drivers: Growth was supported by robust performance in sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and services, along with increased government spending.

* Inflation and Monetary Policy: Retail inflation has moderated, providing room for potential monetary easing. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to consider policy rate cuts to support growth.

Outlook for FY26:

Projections for the next fiscal year (FY25–26) vary among institutions:

* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts GDP growth at 6.5%.

* Fitch Ratings: Anticipates a growth rate of 6.5%. 

* Morgan Stanley: Projects growth at 6.5%, driven by domestic demand.

These forecasts suggest a continuation of moderate growth, supported by domestic consumption and investment.

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